THE LATEST OPINION POLL FOR NAIROBI COUNTY

INTRODUCTION

The results presented are from a Public Opinion Poll conducted in Nairobi County from 3rd to 9th May 2022. The survey covered all the 85 wards in the seventeen constituencies of Nairobi. A total of 3020 voters were randomly selected and interviewed face-to-face. To ensure that the sample was representative of all the voters of Nairobi, the interviews were carried out in the evenings from 5:30 pm to 8:00 pm when majority of the people were expected to be back to their households from work and/or other engagements. The results of the survey have a precision of 2% at the County level and hence provide very accurate estimates of the voter’s preferences. The data was weighted to conform to the actual population of voters in Nairobi. The distribution of the sample is provided at the end of the presentation of the results.

This survey was financed and implemented by Analytics & Strategies Ltd under License number NACOSTI/P/21/9404 issued by the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovations (NACOSTI). The Ethical Committee of the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University Teaching and Referral Hospital reviewed and gave approval for the survey.

Note: Full Report available on payment of KShs 2000. Till Number: 9713063- Analytics & Strategies Ltd

Preference for Presidential Aspirants in Nairobi

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Gender of Voters

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Age of Voters

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Level of Education of Voters

Preference for Presidential Hopefuls by Religion Affiliations

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Constituency

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Occupation

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Local language Spoken Apart from Swahili and English

Preference for Presidential Aspirants by Socio-Demographic Variables

Background Variable	Raila Odinga	William Ruto	Other	Undecided	Total
. Sex
Male	64.6	34.8	0.0	0.5	100.0
Female	62.8	35.0	0.1	2.2	100.0
Age in Years
18 - 24	58.0	39.6	0.0	2.4	100.0
25 - 29	62.9	36.5	0.0	0.5	100.0
30 - 34	64.9	33.3	0.2	1.6	100.0
35 - 39	65.0	34.0	0.1	0.9	100.0
40 - 44	68.0	31.4	0.0	0.6	100.0
45 - 49	67.9	32.1	0.0	0.0	100.0
50 - 54	64.1	33.7	0.2	2.0	100.0
55 - 59	70.0	28.6	0.0	1.4	100.0
60 - 64	67.9	26.2	0.0	5.9	100.0
65 - 69	75.4	24.6	0.0	0.0	100.0
70 - 74	53.6	46.4	0.0	0.0	100.0
Age in Years
No Formal Education	66.2	33.8	0.0	0.0	100.0
Pre-Primary	62.8	37.2	0.0	0.0	100.0
Primary Level Education	65.0	33.7	0.0	1.3	100.0
Post-Primary Vocational	74.0	23.5	0.0	2.5	100.0
Secondary level	62.9	35.9	0.1	1.2	100.0
College (Middle Level; Certificate/Diploma)	66.5	32.5	0.0	1.1	100.0
University (Undergraduate)	54.3	43.8	0.0	1.8	100.0
University (Postgraduate)	65.6	33.9	0.0	0.6	100.0
University (PhD)	81.9	18.1	0.0	0.0	100.0
Not Stated	73.3	23.5	0.0	3.2	100.0
Religion
Roman Catholic	63.1	35.8	0.1	1.1	100.0
Protestant	64.2	34.2	0.0	1.6	100.0
Moslem	67.3	31.7	0.0	1.0	100.0
Traditionalist	41.5	58.5	0.0	0.0	100.0
No Religion	63.7	35.8	0.0	0.4	100.0
Others	47.6	52.4	0.0	0.0	100.0
OVERALL	63.8	34.9	0.1	1.3	100.0
Constituency
Dagoretti North	54.5	45.5	0.0	0.0	100.0
Dagoretti South	89.8	10.2	0.0	0.0	100.0
Embakasi Central	76.1	23.9	0.0	0.0	100.0
Embakasi East	55.0	38.8	0.5	5.7	100.0
Embakasi North	68.3	31.7	0.0	0.0	100.0
Embakasi South	69.0	24.3	0.0	6.7	100.0
Embakasi West	48.7	48.1	0.0	3.2	100.0
Kamukunji	77.6	20.2	0.0	2.2	100.0
Kasarani	56.0	41.7	0.2	2.1	100.0
Kibra	77.2	22.8	0.0	0.0	100.0
Lang'ata	50.8	49.2	0.0	0.0	100.0
Makadara	51.4	48.6	0.0	0.0	100.0
Mathare	61.3	38.7	0.0	0.0	100.0
Roysambu	54.0	46.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Ruaraka	75.6	24.4	0.0	0.0	100.0
Starehe	63.7	35.3	0.1	0.9	100.0
Westlands	66.0	34.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
OVERALL	63.8	34.9	0.1	1.3	100.0

Distribution of the Sample to the Constituencies and Wards

(The clusters are the blocks of houses selected in each estate within the wards)

Constituency	Ward	Clusters	Number of Voters interviewed
Dagoretti North	Gatina	4	40
	Kabiro	4	40
	Kawangware	4	40
	Kileleshwa	3	30
	Kilimani	4	40
Ward Total		19	190
Dagoretti South	Mutu-ini	2	20
	Ngando	3	30
	Riruta	4	40
	Uthiru/Ruthimitu	3	30
	Waithaka	3	30
Ward Total		15	150
Embakasi Central	Kayole Central	3	30
	Kayole North	3	30
	Kayole South	4	40
	Komarock	4	40
	Matopeni/Spring Valley	3	30
Ward Total		17	170
Embakasi East	Embakasi	5	50
	Lower Savanna	4	40
	Mihang'o	3	30
	Upper Savannah	4	40
	Utawala	3	30
Ward Total		19	190
Embakasi North	Dandora Area I	3	30
	Dandora Area II	3	30
	Dandora Area III	3	30
	Dandora Area IV	3	30
	Kariobangi North	3	30
Ward Total		15	150
Embakasi South	Imara Daima	4	40
	Kwa Njenga	3	30
	Kwa Reuben	4	40
	Kware	4	40
	Pipeline	4	40
Ward Total		19	190
Embakasi West	Kariobangi South	4	40
	Mowlem	3	30
	Umoja I	4	40
	Umoja II	4	40
Ward Total		15	150
Kamukunji	Airbase	2	20
	California	3	30
	Eastleigh North	4	40
	Eastleigh South	4	40
	Pumwani	4	40
Ward Total		17	170
Kasarani	Clay City	4	40
	Kasarani	4	40
	Mwiki	4	40
	Njiru	3	30
	Ruai	4	40
Ward Total		19	190
Kibra	Laini Saba	3	30
	Lindi	3	30
	Makina	4	40
	Sarangombe	4	40
	Woodley/ Kenyatta Golf Course	4	40
Ward Total		18	180
Lang'ata	Karen	4	40
	Mugumo-ini	4	40
	Nairobi West	3	30
	Nyayo Highrise	3	30
	South C	4	40
Ward Total		18	180
Makadara	Harambee	4	40
	Makongeni	4	40
	Maringo/Hamza	4	40
	Viwandani	3	30
Ward Total		15	150
Mathare	Hospital	2	20
	Huruma	3	30
	Kiamaiko	3	30
	Mabatini	3	30
	Mlango Kubwa	3	30
	Ngei	3	30
Ward Total		17	170
Roysambu	Githurai	4	40
	Kahawa	3	30
	Kahawa West	4	40
	Roysambu	4	40
	Zimmerman	4	40
Ward Total		19	190
Ruaraka	Baba Dogo	4	40
	Korogocho	3	30
	Lucky Summer	3	30
	Mathare North	4	40
	Utalii	4	40
Ward Total		18	180
Starehe	Landimawe	3	30
	Nairobi Central	5	50
	Nairobi South	4	40
	Ngara	4	40
	Pangani	3	30
	Ziwani/Kariokor	3	30
Ward Total		22	220
Westlands	Kangemi	4	40
	Karura	4	40
	Kitisuru	4	40
	Mountain View	4	40
	Parklands/Highridge	4	40
Ward Total		20	200
County Total		302	3020

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